TOURISM'S MACROECONOMIC CONTRIBUTION AND POST-PANDEMIC RESILIENCE: GDP AND EMPLOYMENT DYNAMICS, 2015-2025, WITH PROJECTIONS TO 2030
Downloads
Objective: The COVID-19 pandemic delivered the sharpest contraction in the modern history of tourism, providing a natural experiment in the sector's macroeconomic weight and resilience. Method: This study analyses the trajectory of tourism's contribution to global gross domestic product and employment over 2015-2025 and projects it to 2030. Results: Tourism's GDP share, stable at about 10.3 percent on the eve of the pandemic, collapsed to 5.5 percent in 2020 - a 47 percent contraction - before recovering to 10.3 percent by 2025; its employment share fell more modestly, from 10.3 to 8.4 percent (a 18 percent contraction), and recovered to 10.9 percent. The asymmetry between the deep, V-shaped output contraction and the shallower, more persistent employment adjustment is the study's central empirical finding, indicating substantial labour retention and a slower but ultimately fuller employment recovery. Trend projection points to continued expansion of both shares through 2030. Novelty: The results quantify tourism's macroeconomic significance, characterize its resilience profile, and inform counter-cyclical and workforce policy.
[1] J. Balaguer and M. Cantavella-Jorda, "Tourism as a long-run economic growth factor: The Spanish case," Appl. Econ., vol. 34, no. 7, pp. 877-884, 2002, doi: https://doi.org/10.1080/00036840110058923
[2] J. G. Brida, I. Cortes-Jimenez, and M. Pulina, "Has the tourism-led growth hypothesis been validated? A literature review," Curr. Issues Tourism, vol. 19, no. 5, pp. 394-430, 2016, doi: https://doi.org/10.1080/13683500.2013.868414
[3] S. Ivanov and C. Webster, "Measuring the impact of tourism on economic growth," Tourism Econ., vol. 13, no. 3, pp. 379-388, 2007, doi: https://doi.org/10.5367/000000007781497773
[4] C. Webster and S. Ivanov, "Transforming competitiveness into economic benefits: Does tourism stimulate economic growth in more competitive destinations?" Tourism Manage., vol. 40, pp. 137-140, 2014, doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tourman.2013.06.003
[5] S. Gossling, D. Scott, and C. M. Hall, "Pandemics, tourism and global change: A rapid assessment of COVID-19," J. Sustain. Tourism, vol. 29, no. 1, pp. 1-20, 2020, doi: https://doi.org/10.1080/09669582.2020.1758708
[6] I. P. Albaladejo, M. I. Gonzalez-Martinez, and M. P. Martinez-Garcia, "A new look to the tourism and economic growth nexus: A clustering and panel causality analysis," World Econ., vol. 46, no. 8, pp. 2305-2328, 2023, doi: https://doi.org/10.1111/twec.13459
[7] S. F. Witt and C. A. Witt, "Forecasting tourism demand: A review of empirical research," Int. J. Forecast., vol. 11, no. 3, pp. 447-475, 1995, doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/0169-2070(95)00591-7
[8] H. Song and G. Li, "Tourism demand modelling and forecasting-A review of recent research," Tourism Manage., vol. 29, no. 2, pp. 203-220, 2008, doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tourman.2007.07.016
[9] G. Athanasopoulos, R. J. Hyndman, H. Song, and D. C. Wu, "The tourism forecasting competition," Int. J. Forecast., vol. 27, no. 3, pp. 822-844, 2011, doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijforecast.2010.04.009
[10] D. Mendola and S. Volo, "Building composite indicators in tourism studies: Measurements and applications in tourism destination competitiveness," Tourism Manage., vol. 59, pp. 541-553, 2017, doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tourman.2016.08.011
[11] J. R. B. Ritchie and G. I. Crouch, The Competitive Destination: A Sustainable Tourism Perspective. Wallingford, U.K.: CABI Publishing, 2003, doi: https://doi.org/10.1079/9780851996646.0000
[12] G. I. Crouch, "Destination competitiveness: An analysis of determinant attributes," J. Travel Res., vol. 50, no. 1, pp. 27-45, 2011, doi: https://doi.org/10.1177/0047287510362776
[13] L. Dwyer and C. Kim, "Destination competitiveness: Determinants and indicators," Curr. Issues Tourism, vol. 6, no. 5, pp. 369-414, 2003, doi: https://doi.org/10.1080/13683500308667962
[14] N. Gooroochurn and G. Sugiyarto, "Competitiveness indicators in the travel and tourism industry," Tourism Econ., vol. 11, no. 1, pp. 25-43, 2005, doi: https://doi.org/10.5367/0000000053297130
[15] R. Croes and M. A. Rivera, "Testing the empirical link between tourism and competitiveness: Evidence from Puerto Rico," Tourism Econ., vol. 16, no. 1, pp. 217-234, 2010, doi: https://doi.org/10.5367/000000010790872114
[16] A. Uyar, C. Kuzey, M. A. Koseoglu, and A. S. Karaman, "Travel and tourism competitiveness index and the tourism sector development," Tourism Econ., vol. 29, no. 5, pp. 1238-1264, 2023, doi: https://doi.org/10.1177/13548166221080357
[17] A. G. Assaf and A. Josiassen, "Identifying and ranking the determinants of tourism performance: A global investigation," J. Travel Res., vol. 51, no. 4, pp. 388-399, 2012, doi: https://doi.org/10.1177/0047287511426337
[18] H. Song, S. F. Witt, and G. Li, "Tourism forecasting: A review of methodological developments over the last decade," Tourism Econ., vol. 25, no. 3, pp. 469-492, 2019, doi: https://doi.org/10.1177/1354816618796829
[19] S. Hosseini et al., "Modeling the link between tourism and economic development: Evidence from homogeneous panels of countries," Humanit. Soc. Sci. Commun., vol. 11, art. 326, 2024, doi: https://doi.org/10.1057/s41599-024-02826-8
[20] J. Khadaroo and B. Seetanah, "The role of transport infrastructure in international tourism development: A gravity model approach," Tourism Manage., vol. 29, no. 5, pp. 831-840, 2008, doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tourman.2007.09.
Copyright (c) 2026 B. Sobirov
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.
